I Predict Everything

Every year I read the Oscar picks' of various critics, most of whom write for pretty noteworthy publications regardless of the fact that they are idiots. Most of the time I totally agree with their assessments of who should win what Oscar. Below are my picks for both who should be nominated for an Oscar and who should win said Oscar. However, in an effort to continue to be more interesting than most people I will show you who I think will actually win and then I will tell you who actually should win. These are my predictions:

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Gran Torino
Milk

Their Pick: Slumdog Millionaire
My Pick: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I love almost everything about Slumdog Millionaire. Just like everyone else my heart was warmed and my eyes were almost barely wet with tears of joy. The acting was great and the directing was even better. But in the end it was just all too perfect to make me feel like I wasn't watching a fairy tale. Is it intended to be seen as a fairy tale and disbelief suspended? Maybe, but that doesn't make it the best story I've seen this year or frankly even the most engaging. In my heart the film that really did that was The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Now if we are talking about improbability this movie about a wrinkly little baby takes the pie. But you know that going in don't you? As much as it was New Orleans of the 1920s David Fincher created a world that was vivid and elaborate. When you see these two movies think about this: Which movie had you waiting to see what came next? And which movie had you thinking about what came next? In the end I will always pick the film that keeps me thinking.

Best Director:
David Fincher: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Darren Arronofsky: The Wrestler
Sam Mendes: Revolutionary Road
Danny Boyle: Slumdog Millionaire
Gus Van Sant: Milk

Their Pick: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
My Pick: Darren Arronofsky, The Wrestler


The two directing styles here are completely opposite. Boyle took on a far more active role in Slumdog Millionaire. He showed you exactly what he wanted you to see when he wanted you to see it. Arronofsky on the other hand literally follows Randy the Ram Robinson around letting you, the viewer, live the life he lives. So in Slumdog how does all that flash and bang, and quick editing really represent the slums of Mumbai? Maybe it doesn't have to, because in the end he still tells an amazing story. Yet, in The Wrestler Randy "The Ram" is represented in not just Mickey Rourke's acting style but also in the down and dirty way the film was shot. From the under-lit exterior shots to the beading blood and sweat the direction was part of one whole idea.

Best Actor:
Mickey Rourke: The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood: Gran Torino
Sean Penn: Milk
Leonardo DiCaprio: Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella: Frost/Nixon

Their Pick: Clint Eastwood
My Pick: Sean Penn

I love Clint Eastwood as much as the next guy. But if you ask me there is a reason he's never won a Best Actor trophy. Clint Eastwood is a cowboy. This man will shoot you in the face then ride off into the sunset. Sean Penn, is probably the furthest thing from Harvey Milk you can get and not for one second did I see Sean Penn the actor in that film. It was more like Harvey Milk brought back from the dead and making out with James Franco the whole time.

Best Actress:
Kate Winslet: Revolutionary Road
Marisa Tomei: The Wrestler
Meryl Streep: Doubt
Anne Hathaway: Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet: The Reader

Their Pick: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
My Pick: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road


This Oscar is much deserved and long overdue. Its obvious why the Academy will give it to her--because they've passed her up for Heavenly Creatures and some say Titanic so its about time. But aside from all that-- she deserves to win, if not just for the awesome shouting matches with Leo but she made it look like they've been married since they stepped of the set of Titanic.

Supporting Actor, Male
Michael Shannon: Revolutionary Road
Heath Ledger: The Dark Knight
Anil Kapoor: Slumdog Millionaire
Jared Harris: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Richard Dreyfuss: W.

Their Pick: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
My Pick: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight


Heath Ledger will win that Oscar for Best Supporting actor. And not just because its the sentimental choice but because I challenge you to show me a better performance from this year (aside from maybe Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road). This is always an interesting category because it generally allows the category to highlight some of the more obscure roles from the year so they all deserve recognition. But Heath Ledger as the Joker was something people had never seen before and will never see again. His Joker was not just showing us a world of chaos but he imbibed destruction with no other motivation than destruction itself. The Joker is an illustration of destruction bent on creating something more--and in his final role Heath's last moment of destruction was his most remarkable.

Supporting Actor, Female
Rosemarie DeWitt: Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Thandie Newton: W.
Amy Adams: Doubt
Penelope Cruz: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Their Pick: Amy Adams
My Pick: Rosemarie DeWitt

Rachel Getting Married was probably one of the most emotionally draining films of the year. The tension that is built up by the potential of so many awkward moments one after the other is very frightening. Yet time and gain in this film either Anne Hathaway or Rosemarie DeWitt have to break that tension with some of the most insane "family" arguments you'll ever hear. Without the dialogue she would have been over acting. Instead she was perfect at making the trivial moments of their arguments real and authentic as if her skin was going to melt off from just having to confront these issues on camera.


So these are my picks. I suppose you could say that in a vacuum-- if the "Academy" didn't set criteria year to year but instead just picked awesome movies-- then I might have to amend this list even more. But then again what would be the point of making a list of all the awards The Dark Knight wins? But alas we do not live in a vacuum. Our world does not suck-- it just blows, and in the words of modern era scholar, me:

"Complain about everything and then tell everything how it can do things better. But never criticize unless you can improve because if you can't improve then you suck. Also try to be eloquent also and well spoken is another thing to be."

If you disagree with my choices then you are a fool. However, I appreciate all feedback foolish or scholarly so please let me know what you think.